ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 29, 2003

NEW YORK - - So does retired Gen. Wesley Clark want to be president or not? We thought he did. We went all the way to Little Rock not long ago to hear him say so.

But in New York last week, at a big Democratic fundraiser following his first debate, Clark said he would prefer a different job. “I didn’t go willingly from the Armed Services,” Clark said, referring to his being booted out as NATO commander in 1999. “If I had my druthers, I’d still be in uniform.”

But if he were still in uniform, he wouldn’t be running for president. In fact, he made clear that using the military to pursue political goals was repugnant to him.

“It is deeply offensive to men and women in uniform that a political leader comes out and a political party comes out and uses them as props for political activity,” he told the Democratic bigwigs. (We don’t want to be one of those negative thinkers, but we suspect he was referring to President Bush landing on that aircraft carrier.)

In any case, most people who run seriously for president want the job really badly. Wes Clark, apparently, considers the Oval Office a consolation prize for not getting a chance to become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

But the Democratic Rat Pack (those nine other Democrats who also are eyeing the presidency) shouldn’t get the idea that Clark, a political novice, is going to be a push-over.

While his debate performance was only so-so, he was very good in front of the 650 Democratic contributors, especially on the key issue of whether a guy who became a Democrat just a few weeks ago deserves to carry the party’s banner.

“We’re going to get a lot of people like me, who are not long time members of this party; they’re going to be coming to us,” Clark told the crowd. “I’m your newest Democrat. But I’ll be joined by hundreds of thousands and millions more!”

The line that got the biggest round of applause, however, still shows that the Democratic Party, or at least that faction made up of activists who go to fundraisers in New York City, is still a peace party.

“You must never use force unless it is the last, last, last alternative,” Clark said as the audience thundered its approval.

Clark also showed himself to be politically adept by lavishing praise on Democratic Chairman Terence McAuliffe, even though the two have had an off-again, on-again relationship. “There is no greater gift than to stand up for and fight for what you believe in,” Clark said emotionally. “Terry, thank you for giving me that gift.”

As has been noted, Clark is being supported by many people who once worked for Bill Clinton. But working for Bill Clinton and getting things done for Bill Clinton were two different things.

One of those who got things done is freshman Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., whose Clinton ties are 24-karat. Emanuel was Clinton’s finance director - - a nice name for the guy who raises the dough - - when Clinton ran for president in 1992.

And after Clinton won, Emanuel, who became famous for relentlessly pursuing the president’s goals and also for standing on desks and yelling at people, got two snazzy offices in the West Wing, first as Assistant to the President for Political Affairs and then as Senior Advisor to the President for Policy and Strategy.

Standing in Spin Alley after the debate, we asked Emanuel why he is now backing Clark. “Because he’s a home-boy from Chicago!” Emanuel said.

Which was a small joke: Clark left Chicago and moved to Arkansas when he was five years old.

Asked to compare Clark to Clinton, Emanuel said: “Do I think Gen. Clark’s a natural politician? No. But is he quite conversant with the issues and very bright? Yes.”

For the debate, the candidates were given 10 tickets each to hand out to big shots whom they wanted to impress or reward (or maybe punish - - the debate was two hours long.)

Aside from Emanuel, Clark reserved a seat for former Bill Daley, Clinton Secretary of Commerce and Al Gore campaign chair; Richard Gephardt offered a ticket to James P. Hoffa, president of the Teamsters Union, which has endorsed Gephardt; Bob Graham offered one to former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, John Kerry put Robert Kennedy Jr. on his list and Dennis Kucinich saved a seat for Ben Cohen of Ben & Jerry’s, the famous Vermont-based ice cream company. Take that Howard Dean!

So how angry are the other candidates with Clark’s success so far? So angry that one opposing candidate’s staff is telling reporters that polls showing Clark doing well shouldn’t be believed.

Why? Because, the opponents say, when pollsters ask people if they are for “General Clark,” he does very well. But if pollsters ask people about “Wesley Clark,” he doesn’t do as well.

Duh. No kidding. Maybe Joe Lieberman could change is first name to “Admiral” and see if that helps any.

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 24, 2003

LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas - - Wesley Clark is a resume candidate with essentially only one item on his resume: He served in the Army for 34 years, retiring as a four-star general.

Is that enough to get him to the Oval Office? To some Democrats, it is more than enough.

Smarting under the accusation that the Democrats have become the Mommy Party, concerned with such "soft " issues as education, health care and the environment, while the Republicans are the Daddy Party concerned with such "hard" issues as national defense, terrorism and crime, some now feel that Clark provides the party with the macho needed to stand up to President Bush next fall no matter how many aircraft carriers he lands on.

But Clark has to eliminate nine other Democratic contenders before he can get there, all of whom have been running for months. Clark has no political experience, has never served a day in public office and is still assembling his campaign staff.

Clark does, however, start out with something refreshing in a presidential candidate: at least a small amount of humility. On the day before his announcement Clark admitted he doesn't yet know everything there is to know. "I'll do my best, but there will be a lot of things that I don't know right away," Clark said. "I want to learn. I've got a whole period of time. I've got to go around America. I want to talk to people about the issues."

In fact, however, Clark has very little time. Too little time, probably, to effectively compete in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19 and possibly too little time to do much in the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 27. Clark - - and a host of other Democrats-- are eyeing the "third wave" primaries on Feb. 3 that include South Carolina, Oklahoma and Arizona.

But if front-running former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and he currently is doing well in the polls in both states, he may be hard for Clark or anyone else to stop.

Although not all Clark's positions are known - - including to Clark - - he appears to be a pro-affirmative action, pro-abortion rights liberal much like Dean. And, in fact, Dean initially welcomed him into the race.

"It is a good thing for us to have Wes Clark," Dean said. "I have four people beating up on me for being against the war. Now I have a four-star general saying the same thing I've been saying."

Not quite.

Hours after his announcement, Clark, who has been attacking Bush vigorously over the Iraq war for months, was telling reporters that he probably would have voted to authorize Bush to go to war in Iraq.

Further, Clark said, his views were closer to the four Democrats in the race who had voted for the war resolution - - Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and Senators Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina - - than to those of Dean.

Later, Clark took it all back saying: “Let’s make one thing clear, I would never have voted for this war.”

Then he managed to confuse things further by adding: “I would have voted for the right kind of leverage to get a diplomatic solution, an international solution to the challenge of Saddam Hussein.”

Whatever that might mean.

And even though some thought Clark had gotten off on the wrong foot by muddying his message on the war, Clark told me he was enjoying himself. "I love it," he said of his first days on the campaign trail. "The reason I came into this is that people asked me to. But it's also an obligation and I am really privileged and I will do the best I can."

Asked for the first three things he would do as president, Clark answered with more enthusiasm than strict mathematical skill: "Work the foreign policy issue and the war on terrorism, reinvigorate the economy and provide new jobs, set in motion the kinds of programs that address urgent domestic needs and reduce the deficit."

Donnie Fowler, a leading candidate to become Clark's campaign manager, said the Clark campaign strategy would be two-fold: "First, he's a winner, he can win the election," Fowler said. "And second, he will provide security, but all kinds of security: national security, job security, security from terrorism at home and abroad."

But how is Clark going to sell himself to the American people?

"We're going to do this in non-conventional ways," Fowler said. "He's not a politician. A conventional politician parks in Iowa for 45 days, parks in New Hampshire for 45 days and raises money for 30 days. We're not going to go to Iowa and New Hampshire and park there."

The campaign intends to win, it appears, largely on the inspirational ability and likability of its candidate.

This guy is not your average candidate with your average message," Fowler says. "He easily gets over the Budweiser Threshold: Do you want to have a beer with him?"

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 22, 2003

WASHINGTON - - If anything deserves hanging in this country, it is the chad.

A tiny piece of cardboard produced by punchcard voting machines, it threw the 2000 presidential election into 36 days of chaos when thousands of ballots in Florida were found to have their little chads still grimly hanging on rather than falling cleanly into the chad box like they should.

And while jurisdictions all over the country abandoned punchcards for that very reason, California has been slow in replacing its machines. Six counties representing 44 percent of the state’s vote and including Los Angeles County still use punchcards and still have a potential chad problem.

problem so great, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit Court ruled recently, that the California gubernatorial recall election could not go forward Oct. 7.

Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who could crush a chad like, well, like a tiny piece of cardboard, appeared to be the big loser in the decision. One reason Schwarzenegger, who has never run for public office before, got into the race was because it was a relatively quick way to become governor. He would not have to spend month after month campaigning and debating, he could just swoop in and use his star power for eight weeks to terminate the other candidates.

And while the Ninth Circuit panel left unstated when the election should take place, most analysts were guessing that it would be March 3, the date of the California presidential primary. Which would be good news for incumbent Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat.

Not only would it give him more time to persuade voters that he isn’t a total zero (a particularly time-consuming task), but Democrats might be drawn out of their homes to vote for presidential contenders, while Republicans might stay home because George Bush probably will face no opposition.

But last Friday, the full Ninth Circuit decided that an 11-judge panel should re-hear the case. Will that make any difference? Who knows? This is California, whose new motto might be: “At Least We’re Smarter Than Florida.”

“California isn’t Florida,” says Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, senior scholar in the school of policy, planning and development at the University of Southern California. “Voters here have been educated.”

Educated in chad reduction? How does that work?

“We know how to turn over our ballot cards and look for them!” Jeffe says.

At which time voters can pull, pinch, or bite the hanger-ons from the ballots. So, problem solved?

“No,” Jeffe says, “My guess is that whatever the 11-judge panel decides doesn’t matter. It will go to the U.S. Supreme Court.”

But if the final decision, no matter by whom, is to delay the election until March, it could also profoundly change the line-up of candidates.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if Schwarzenegger at least thinks of withdrawing,” Jeffe says. “And some candidates who have dropped out, might get back in.”
Are we having fun, yet?

“We are!” Jeffe says. “My students are energized. My lesson plan is out the window. I tore up my syllabus. You can’t believe the can of worms that is left to be opened!”

Which is another thing about Californians: They like to look on the bright side of things.

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 17, 2003

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. - - Retired Gen. Wesley Clark is a Democratic dream: an anti-war general.

He provides the macho that Democrats believe they must have to beat George Bush and the liberalism that Democrats demand.

And even though most people know very little about him, he is an instant buzz candidate: Everybody is talking about him.

I was in Little Rock, his hometown, to watch him officially announce for president Wednesday. And while much commentary has been done about the uphill fight he faces for the nomination - - the nine other Democratic candidates have been raising money for months and months while Clark is just starting out, for instance- - there has been little examination of the basic premise behind Clark’s candidacy: that Americans really want a general as president.

Being a warrior is not what it used to be in America.

In 1992, Bill Clinton, a draft-avoider, beat war hero President George H.W. Bush, for the presidency and in 1996 Clinton beat war hero Bob Dole.

Americans knew full well Clinton’s relentless string-pulling to avoid the Vietnam draft. And they knew full well the heroics of Bush and Dole.

And they didn’t care. They elected Clinton anyway.

And while those supporting Wesley Clark like to talk about Dwight David Eisenhower, the last general who was elected to the presidency, a closer parallel to Clark is Alexander Haig.

Like Clark, Haig was a decorated veteran, a general, and a NATO commander, but unlike Clark Haig had actual White House experience: He had been a Secretary of State under Ronald Reagan and a White House Chief of Staff under Richard Nixon.

Haig was reasonably personable and a reasonably good speaker and he ran for president in 1988 and went nowhere.

Ah, yes, you say, but all of this was before September 11. September 11 changed everything.

But what did it change? September 11 was not a U.S. military failure it was a U.S. intelligence failure. So does putting a general in the White House really make us more secure?

Further, it is important to remember that Clark is not really “anti-war.” He supported military intervention in Iraq, but felt President George W. Bush acted too quickly and without proper international support.

And as the war in Iraq grinds on, as we continue to pay a higher and higher price both in American blood and American dollars, will some voters question whether having a military man in the White House might not lead to more, not fewer, military adventures?

In other words, will some Americans - - especially liberal Democrats who dominate the early caucus and primary contests - - shy away from a president whose first instinct might be to use the military?

Wesley Clark is going to have a hard time getting the Democratic nomination and he doesn’t need any more troubles. But all these are among the troubles he is going to face.

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 15, 2004

WASHINGTON - - The Democratic presidential candidates can’t catch a break. They have been campaigning approximately forever, they have met in debates and forums more than 20 times, and most people still can’t name a single one of them.

Out in California, on the other hand, where citizens eventually will vote on whether to recall their governor, name recognition is no problem.

Everybody knows that Arnold Schwarzenegger is running for governor, and because of his body-building and acting career, he enjoys a huge advantage over the other 134 candidates on the ballot.

I recently flew to Fresno, Calif. to hear Schwarzenegger speak to school children, and as I walked through the airport, I noticed a Terminator 2 pinball machine - - yes, they still play pinball in Fresno - - that featured a large color picture of Schwarzenegger.

There was no pinball machine featuring Schwarzenegger’s leading opponents: Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante or Republican State Sen. Tom McClintock.
True, Schwarzenegger was depicted on the game as being half-human and half-machine, but publicity, as they say, is publicity.

The chaotic California race was thrown even deeper into pandemonium on Monday when the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the vote should not take place Oct. 7, as scheduled, because major population centers in California still use punch-card ballots, the kind they used in Florida that led to all those hanging chads.

The ruling was by a three-member panel and the panel stayed its own order for seven days to allow an appeal to the full 11-member 9th Circuit Court or directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, the same court that decided the Florida controversy.

The election could be delayed until the regular March 3, 2004 California presidential primary, when new voting machines will be in place.

This would almost certainly help California’s governor, Gray Davis, a Democrat, since the Democratic presidential race might be a lot hotter then and presumably will draw Democrats to the polls, while President Bush is currently running unopposed and so Republicans might not come out.

It also removes one of Schwarzenegger’s advantages: The recall was supposed to be a quick race that was not going to get bogged down in issues or a lot of debates. Schwarzenegger has accepted only one debate invitation, one in which the candidates will get the questions in advance.

But if the recall election is delayed until March, can Schwarzenegger really refuse to meet his opponents face-to-face time and time again? Can he really avoid making and defending detailed policy statements on the major issues?

His campaign already has run into unexpected problems. Polls show him trailing the far less colorful, but equally determined Bustamante. Then, McClintock, who is liked by conservatives, refused to drop out in favor of Schwarzenegger. The latter is especially important. Schwarzenegger wanted McClintock out before 2 million absentee ballots were placed in the mail, but that happened last week and McClintock is not only still in, but insisting he will never bow to the Terminator.

The Schwarzenegger camp is being brave about it, but they fear the arithmetic: If there is one prominent Democrat, Bustamante, running against two prominent Republicans, Schwarzenegger and McClintock, the Republican vote could be split and the Democrat could win.

“We can win with the current field, but there is no question the math gets simpler if the field continues to consolidate around Arnold,” Rob Stutzman, Schwarzenegger’s spokesman, says. “We’re confident that at the end of the day, Sen. McClintock will do the right thing and not imperil a Republican victory.”

But a bigger peril to a Republican victory may be the women’s vote in a state where women make up 52 percent of likely voters. According to a recent Field Poll, Schwarzenegger leads Bustamante narrowly among men, but trails him by a whopping 13 points among women. Why? One reason may be the violence in some Schwarzenegger movies, but another may be some of Schwarzenegger’s recent comments, such as an interview in Entertainment Weekly dated July 11, in which he talks about his movie “Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines”, and says, “How many times do you get away with this - - to take a woman, grab her upside down and bury her face in a toilet bowl?”

One time too many from a political standpoint.

The California election is confusing because it is really two elections. Question One asks voters whether they want to recall Davis as governor. A simple majority will determine his fate. Question Two asks voters to select among 135 names for his replacement. All that is needed to win here is a plurality. In other words, Davis could get 49.99 percent of the vote on Question One and lose his job to a person who gets 30 percent of the vote on Question Two.

Unfair? Especially since Davis was reelected only last November and no charges of any kind have been brought, let alone proved, against him? His campaign sure thinks so.

“Recalls were designed for malfeasance or criminality, not for bad economies and budgets shortfalls,” says Davis spokesman Peter Ragone.

On Monday, Davis was asked about the appeals court decision that could delay the election. “This recall has been like a roller coaster,” he said. “It has more surprises than you can possibly imagine.”

And I get a funny feeling that California being California, more could be on the way.

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 10, 2003

WASHINGTON - - Five great thoughts after watching the nine Democratic presidential contenders debate for the umpteenth time:

1. How did George Bush get so dumb so fast? It was just a matter of months ago that four of the Democratic candidates for president - - Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman - - all voted to give Bush a virtual blank check to go to war in Iraq. So they must have trusted his judgment then.

Now, however, Gephardt says Bush is a “miserable failure” and his Iraq policy is an “abomination.” Kerry openly questions whether the president is a dummy, or, as he puts it, “involved in decisions” regarding the Iraq war.

And Lieberman says Bush is “the most fiscally irresponsible president in the history of the United States of America.” But how did Lieberman think Bush was going to pay for the Iraq war? With a debit card?

So it seems that as dumb as Bush was, he was smart enough to bamboozle four Democratic contenders. And if they are such easy dupes that a “miserable failure” can pull the wool over their eyes, why should they be president?

Just asking.

2. Speaking of the war, the Howard Dean camp has to be very worried about Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich and Dean both opposed the Iraq war, but Kucinich is now flanking Dean to the left by saying, “The best way to protect our troops is to bring them home!”

Why does Dean have to worry about this, since Dean is the front-runner and Kucinich has no chance of winning the nomination? Because Kucinich is going to take votes away from Dean in Iowa, where anti-war feeling runs high, and if Kucinich takes away enough votes, Dean could lose the state to Gephardt, who is running a close second to him in the polls there.

Dean very much wants to begin his 2004 campaign with a “January Juggernaut,” a double-win in Iowa on Jan. 19 and New Hampshire on Jan. 27. This will give him the momentum to crash through the “Stop Dean” movement. But Kucinich could threaten that.

3. Everyone has been wondering if Dean can take a punch and now he is starting to feel them. I was in Santa Fe, New Mexico last week at a small, relaxed, indoor rally in a coffee shop where Dean was asked about Israel and he casually answered that “it’s not our place to take sides” in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Reporters asked Dean staffers, who were there in abundance, if this was going to cause trouble for Dean and they shrugged it off.

Joe Lieberman, however, is not shrugging it off and he is not going to drop it as an issue, claiming during the debate in Baltimore on Tuesday night that Dean is abandoning “a 50-year record of support for Israel” by this country.

Dean replied by claiming his position was the same as Bill Clinton’s and, “It doesn’t help, Joe, to demagogue this issue.”

It doesn’t? I thought demagoguery is what debates (and politics) were about.

4. Dean also got hit again on his gun control stand, as he did last week in Albuquerque by John Kerry, though few noticed then.

Though some in the Democratic party want to abandon gun control as an issue in order to court the Bubba/Nascar vote, they are kidding themselves. They are never going to get those votes. George Bush is the Bubba/Nascar president. Why do you think he landed on that carrier in a flight suit? Why do you think he said, “Bring them on” to those Iraqis attacking Americans? Why do you think he likes to spend a month clearing brush on his ranch? This guy is a Bubba/Nascar voter!

And the Democrats, in a vain attempt to win those votes, run the real risk of losing the support of suburban women who like gun control.

Dean has a “states’ rights” approach to gun control, meaning let the 50 states decide about gun control without federal interference. He assumes that rural states like Vermont, with low homicide rates, will not want gun control and urban states like Massachusetts, with high homicide rates, will.

Trouble is, guns are portable. And if Vermont votes to legalize the private ownership of bazookas and Vermonters start blowing up people in Massachusetts with them, states’ rights may not seem like such a good idea.

5. The Democrats have debated many, many times now and they are getting good at it. I mean it. With the exceptions I noted above, they are showing themselves to be sharp, quick and savvy. I doubt President Bush is watching these debates, but I’ll bet his political guru, Karl Rove, is.

Which is why I predict Bush will agree to no more than one debate against the Democratic nominee next fall. The Democrats will have had plenty of practice by then and he will have had none.

Sometimes not having any opposition in your own party can be a drawback.

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 8, 2003

ALBUQUERQUE - - It was one of those moments that presidential campaigns struggle hard to avoid. As Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt was barging out of a news conference, he bumped into former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who was barging in.

"We'll have fun tonight," Gephardt said, referring to the first official debate of the 2004 campaign, which would take place in a few hours at the University of New Mexico.

"Fun for some of you," Dean said. "I'm wearing my body armor for this one." Dean is discovering a hard political truth: The higher you climb up the pole, the more your behind is exposed.

But he has turned out to be a genuine phenomenon, an insurgent who could run away with the Democratic nomination. And the other candidates have watched first in annoyance, then in frustration and now in panic as Dean has continued to gather money, volunteers and media attention.

Though the other candidates do not lack outrage when it comes to Dean, they do lack guts. At least the guts to attack him face-to-face on stage on live TV. The exception during the debate was Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, who previously had attacked Dean as being soft on defending America and now attacked him on U.S. trade policy.

But while it was inaudible to TV viewers and reporters watching the debate in the filing center at the debate, when Lieberman said that if Dean were elected the "Bush recession would be followed by a Dean depression," the audience soundly booed Lieberman.

To Lieberman, desperately seeking to jump-start his campaign by launching an attack that would guarantee him air time and print space, the boos were worth it. The best way to get attention is to attack the front-runner, and Lieberman's attack on Dean only proved that this is what Dean has become.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. Back on a snowy day in January in Des Moines, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts became an early front-runner by drawing about 500 people to an event where only about 50 were expected. With few other measuring sticks available, the media decided that was good enough to anoint Kerry.

Yet now, eight months later, with both polls and fundraising to go by, the momentum has clearly swung to Dean, who leads Kerry by a lot in New Hampshire polls and leads Gephardt narrowly in Iowa. If Dean wins both states, which has happened only twice in Democratic Party history, both Kerry and Gephardt would be severely damaged, if not eliminated.

Dean's strategy for victory is simple: Dean bashes George Bush with every issue he raises, with almost every sentence he speaks, his words falling like hammer blows upon the president. "There are probably more members of Al Qaeda attacking America today in Iraq than before the war!" Dean said at a rally in Santa Fe the day before the debate. "Our biggest loss in this country is the sense that we're all in this together - - the president has destroyed that! We have got to beat this president; we want our country back!"

Some Democrats are afraid that this message, which may be popular with the activist Democrats who vote in the early primaries and caucuses, will be a losing message in a general election, where independents, who are less angry with Bush, may fail to provide their crucial swing votes.

Others believe that nobody is going to beat Bush, no matter who the Democrats nominate. This is a view not shared, however, by Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe, who came to New Mexico to say that polls showing Bush with high personal approval ratings are meaningless. "I couldn't care less if voters want to go fishing with the guy," McAuliffe said. "He is under 45 percent in all the reelection polls. He is vulnerable."

But the leaders of the Democratic Party are being careful about Dean. They want to see if he has staying power or if he is just another shooting star that flames out and falls to earth as the primary season progresses. New Mexico, which Al Gore won very narrowly in 2000, has become a critical state to the Democrats in 2004 as they seek to make up in the West those states out of their reach in the South. And when New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson was asked if Dean could win New Mexico, he played it about as carefully as a human being could.

"Howard Dean is a good candidate and I think he could win New Mexico," Richardson said. "But so could all the others."

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 3, 2003

CHARLESTON, S.C. - - Not everybody is getting out of here alive.

By the time the South Carolina Democratic primary is over on the evening of Feb. 3, there is going to be blood on the floor and fresh tombstones in the graveyard of broken dreams.

There are currently nine Democrats running for president, a tenth may jump in soon, but after South Carolina the number of viable candidates is going to be smaller. Maybe much smaller. Some candidates may limp along because they still have some bucks left, but they will be dead behind the eyes.

There are other primaries the same day, but they will not be watched like South Carolina will be.

There are important primaries to follow, but not all the candidates will be around to enter them.

The battle plan is simple: If former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean really does pull off an amazing double-win in the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire, then South Carolina is where anti-Dean forces must coalesce around one candidate to stop him from getting the nomination.

U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who once upon a time was a front-runner, is now hoping he can be the stopper here. Kerry once had a northern strategy: win New Hampshire and possibly Iowa.

Now he has a southern strategy: Stop Howard Dean in South Carolina and keep hope alive.

Which is why Kerry gave his presidential announcement speech here this week, in front of the USS Yorktown, rather than in Boston, in front of Old Ironsides, as originally planned.

“Kerry is announcing here, because South Carolina is now Kerry’s firewall,” a prominent South Carolina Democrat said. “If he loses New Hampshire, he has to win here or he’s through.”

South Carolina has a high percentage of veterans living here, which is the good news for Kerry, who has made his service in Vietnam the centerpiece of his campaign.

The bad news is that most of those veterans vote Republican. (John McCain was depending on their votes in 2000, but George W. Bush still beat him here.) True, they could easily vote in the Democratic primary for Kerry - - there is no party registration in South Carolina - - but will they?

And Kerry’s emphasis on his Vietnam service is a high-risk strategy. Americans are still very conflicted over that war, as was Kerry himself: He both fought in the war and protested against it.

And being a war hero is not what is used to be in American politics: Bill Clinton, who dodged the Vietnam draft, faced off against two war heroes, George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Bob Dole in 1996, and beat them both.

Besides, there are other candidates who have their own reasons for believing they will win South Carolina and be anointed as the man to battle Dean for the nomination:

Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt is popular with black voters here and the black vote is expected to be anywhere from 40 to 50 percent of the total primary vote.

Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman is popular with fundamentalist Christians here and they represent a powerful force in state politics. Yes, he is Jewish, but they like it when he talks about his personal relationship with God and moral values.

North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was born here before moving one state north, he appeals to southern pride and points out that the last two Democratic presidents (Clinton and Jimmy Carter) both came from the south.

Some candidates view South Carolina as a firewall, a place to halt their losses. Others view it as a starting point, a place to really jumpstart their campaigns.

Either way, however, somebody has to be disappointed after the sun sets on Feb. 3.

And not everybody is getting out of here alive.

ROGER SIMON COLUMN
SEPTEMBER 1, 2003

FRESNO, Calif. - - Arnold Schwarzenegger walks confidently into the large, all-purpose room at Edison-Bethune Charter Academy, where several hundred elementary school kids sat on the floor squirming in anticipation.

True, none of the kids could vote. But they couldn’t ask him questions, either.

The most noticeable thing about the campaigning in California’s gubernatorial recall election is how little campaigning there is.

The major Democratic presidential candidates, who are not facing their first contest for four months, campaign virtually every day.

In California, where the election is only five weeks away, it is sometimes hard to find a major candidate campaigning at all. One reason for this is that no campaign had adequate time to prepare. These last few weeks have been a mad scramble to find staff, stake-out positions and bring the candidates up to speed.

A second reason is that candidates are not used to daily campaign appearances in California. The state is so large, it has always been considered a “media state”, where candidates campaign via TV commercials.

But the recall election has generated enormous interest from the news media. There is an incredible 16 camera crews with Arnold this day even though Fresno is neither cheap nor easy to get to (it is a three-and-a-half hour drive or a $500 plane ticket from Los Angeles, for example).

And because the news media is interested - - especially in Arnold - - the campaigns feel the need to get their candidates out their in the flesh to take advantage of all the free publicity, publicity which is ordinarily lacking in ordinary governor’s races.

So Arnold, dressed simply but sharply in a blue blazer, open-necked white shirt, and tan slacks, strides into the room where everyone erupts into applause.

The teachers here are more familiar with Arnold (even his campaign posters have abandoned the name Schwarzenegger) than the kids, who range from kindergarten to sixth grade. This being a charter academy, they are dressed in a semblance of uniforms, which means either white or blue golf shirts over shorts. This not only builds pride, but it makes it much cheaper for their parents to clothe them. These kids do not come from high-income homes.

Most are also wearing huge back-packs, some nearly trailing on the ground, and many featuring movie heroes like Spiderman, Scooby-Doo, Little Mermaid and Hulk. I see no Terminator back-packs, but to show what kind of advantage Arnold has in name recognition, the Fresno airport has a Terminator 2 pinball machine in it, featuring a large full-color drawing of Arnold as half-flesh and half-machine. (There are no pinball machines featuring Cruz Bustamante, his chief Democratic opponent on the ballot, even though Bustamante grew up in Fresno.)

Arnold, who looks smaller in person than on the screen, but with a craggier face, beams as he is introduced as a “champion for children” who “cares that you get a quality education.”

As always, he begins his speeches by reading the names of both where he is and who has just introduced him off a white note card, then puts the note card away and launches into a 10-minute pep talk that he gives without notes.

“I come to you not as ‘Kindergarten Cop,’ but as someone who loves children,” he begins.

He gets little response to this, perhaps because “Kindergarten Cop” was released in 1990, before these kids were born.

“When I was a child (in Austria), I had great schools, great mentors,” he goes on. “I had parents at home. And even though I wanted to go out and play, my mother took a yardstick and whacked me over the head.”

The kids understand what that means and it is not good, but Arnold hastens to add that this is not the modern method of education he uses with his own kids, today. “I tell them if they read out loud, they will get some ice cream,” he says.

“Only when I did all my homework,” he goes on, “could I play.”

He explains how this helped him so he “could come to America and do body-building and strong man stuff.”

The kids giggle at this.

“I want to help other children to be successful!” he says. “Stay away from junk food in vending machines! Stay away from drugs! Stay away from alcohol and smoking!”

“You are responsible to do your studying! Get smarter! Don’t hang out! Don’t waste your time! Stay away from violence!”

What Arnold lacks in eloquence - - this is not exactly up to the level of Jesse Jackson’s “Put hope in your brains, not dope in your veins” - - he makes up in enthusiasm and at the end of his list he shouts, “Do I have your promise?”

The kids shout yes, Arnold does the obligatory “Can’t hear you” and they shout louder.

“The power is in you!” he tells them. “Don’t worry where you come from! Worry about where you’re going!”

Which could be a nifty little metaphor for his own career: From body-builder to actor to…governor of the nation’s largest state?

“I am running for governor,” Arnold tells the kids. “Talk about homework! That’s some serious homework!”