ROGER SIMON COLUMN
JANUARY 5, 2005
WASHINGTON - - Because the Democrats haven't decided what they should now stand for, they are having a hard time deciding who their new chairman should be.
The 440 members of the Democratic National Committee will meet in February to choose someone to replace the current chair, Terry McAuliffe.
Perhaps because the job no longer looks that appetizing, a number of people have dropped out of the running, leaving just four active candidates: former member of the House from Texas Martin Frost, former Denver mayor Wellington Webb, New Democratic Network president Simon Rosenberg and Democratic activist Donnie Fowler.
A few others are considering running, including former presidential candidate Howard Dean.
Do not feel badly if the only name you recognize in that list is Dean. The party chair is often not widely known to the general public.
But Dean's high-profile, if not his performance in the primaries (he won only one state, his home state of Vermont, and that only after he had ended active campaigning), would seem to give him an advantage should he choose to run.
I am having a hard time believing he will actually run for the job, however. He has said if he is elected Democratic chair he will not run for president in 2008. And I can't believe he won't run in 2008.
There is really no reason for him to sit out 2008. Yes, he lost badly last year, but the knowledge you gain from running for president is invaluable, and if Dean can learn, mature and adapt as a candidate, he would certainly be a credible contender next time.
I had assumed there were three Democrats sure to run in 2008: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Howard Dean. (Others will probably run and John Kerry might run again, even though the Democrats do not have much of a record for re-nominating people who have lost: Adlai Stevenson was the last and he ended up losing twice to Dwight Eisenhower.)
So why would Dean consider running for DNC chair? Dean, who is a former chair of the Democratic Governors Association and the National Governors Association, is very proud of the work he did for those bodies and believes he has the skills to transform the Democratic Party.
Also, it would make him a major player in national politics for the next four years.
Not that Dean would be a shoe-in to win the party chairmanship. Far from it. Some Red State Democrats would certainly oppose him, fearing he is too far to the left, and others would oppose him because they don't believe a self-proclaimed "insurgent" should be the public face and voice of the party.
He might win anyway - - though I think Martin Frost would probably have to be considered the front-runner right now - - but again, I can't quite figure out why Dean would want to win.
Dean has a heck of an e-mail list, a cadre of people who still support him for president very passionately, and a proven ability to raise money on the Internet. So why give up even the outside chance for the presidency for the life of a party chair, which involves relentless fundraising and a horrendous amount of travel to rubber chicken dinners?
In the end, I don't think Dean will run for party chair. Having shown himself to be a risk-taker in 2004, I think he will take the same risk in 2008 and run for president.
So where does that leave the Democratic Party? In a state they are familiar with: a state of confusion.
Next: What the Democrats should do.