ROGER SIMON COLUMN
FEBRUARY 14, 2005
WASHINGTON - - Even with a new chairman, the Democrats lack a clear leader and a clear path to the future.
Terry McAuliffe, the outgoing chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), believes the party must fill the gap. "The next chair of the party has to begin to do message testing, message development in all 50 states. We need to start today," McAuliffe says. "We can't wait for a nominee in April of 2008 to say, 'Okay, what's our message?' We don't have to wait for the nominee. By April 2008, we will know exactly what we have to do in order to win the presidential election."
But what if the nominee disagrees with the DNC-tested message? McAuliffe thinks that is unlikely to happen, because the nominee is going to want to win. "If we have done our job for four years of this testing and the polling and doing what we need to do, you're going to have a very good idea of what works and what doesn't," he says.
While McAuliffe suffered some initial criticism after the losses of 2004, this has been replaced by widespread praise for what he accomplished as a party-builder: The party is out of debt, has raised $10 million since the last election, and can raise "$100 million this year at a touch of a button," McAuliffe says.
So what does the party need? "We need to be going into the Red States, we need to be going into their neighborhoods, talking about our Democratic values and what we stand for and getting people comfortable with us," McAuliffe says. "We can't continue to allow Republicans to go in and distort our position on issues and scare people."
That may not be as easy as it sounds.
Bill Daley, Al Gore's campaign chairman, points out that Democrats have to get over certain hurdles that Republicans do not. "Sure, Sept. 11 made it very hard to win this time," Daley says. "But Vietnam totally moved Democrats to a party that conveyed weakness, and we are still living with that. Since Vietnam, since the 60s, since Woodstock and all that, Democrats have had to convince people we are pro-American and pro-military and have values. The Democrats have an obligation to prove it, but it is a given for Republicans, even though they may have fewer values than Democrats."
There are other factors. It seems clear that while presidential candidates don't have to be warm and fuzzy, neither can they be cold and aloof.
"People have got to feel comfortable with you," McAuliffe says. "They want to be able to say, 'You know, he's a nice guy.' "
Or a nice woman, considering that one of the current front-runners for the 2008 nomination is Hillary Clinton.
"In 2008 it is going to be Hillary and someone else (seriously fighting for the nomination)," David Axelrod, a Democratic strategist, says. "The question is who the someone else will be." John Edwards, Kerry's running mate, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, and Kerry are all seen as currently vying to be the "someone else."
Some, including Daley, believe that the Democrats will simply never win if they keep looking to Washington for their presidential candidates. Asked if that meant that in 2008, only governors need apply, Daley said, "Absolutely, for the time being. Or a senator or congressman who hasn't been there long and hasn't bought into the routine."
Anita Dunn, a Democratic strategist, agrees: "History shows us governors get elected more easily than senators. We should look to people who have won in Red States like Mark Warner (governor of Virginia) and Evan Bayh (formerly a two-term governor of Indiana. Other governors thought to be interested in 2008 include Tom Vilsack of Iowa, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Janet Napolitano of Arizona, and Phil Bredesen of Tennessee.)
Whichever way the Democrats end up viewing the last election and planning for the next one, Dunn has one piece of advice almost as old as the party itself.
"We should not mourn," she says. "We should organize."
Posted by rsimon at February 14, 2005 03:23 PM