ROGER SIMON COLUMN
OCTOBER 31, 2005
WASHINGTON - - Five Things I Keep Hearing That Are Probably Not True:
1. The perjury case against Scooter Libby, Dick Cheney's former chief of staff, is a case of "he said/they said." Libby says reporters told him that Valerie Plame worked for the CIA; the reporters say they did not. A jury will decide whether to believe Libby or NBC's Tim Russert, Time's Matt Cooper and the New York Times' Judith Miller.
Response: Libby wishes it were that easy. In fact, there will be two sets of witnesses arrayed against Libby before the prosecutor even gets to the reporters. First, there are the three people who have testified that they told Libby about Plame before the three reporters allegedly did. This group is made up of a CIA official, a State Department official and the vice president of the United States.
Second, there are the people whom Libby told about Plame before Libby spoke to reporters. Libby told former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer about Plame on Monday, July 7, yet Libby did not speak to Russert, who Libby says told him about Plame, until Thursday, July 10.
As Ryan Lizza of The New Republic wrote recently: "A lot will hang on the testimony of Fleischer….As (Special Prosecutor) Fitzgerald pointed out (in his press conference), 'What's important about that is that Mr. Libby, the indictment alleges, was telling Mr. Fleischer something on Monday that he claims to have learned on Thursday.' "
Yes, the reporters will play a part in the trial. But the case does not hinge on them alone.
2. All Libby has to do is claim that he made an honest mistake when he spoke to FBI agents and the grand jury. Libby is a busy man, he's only human, and he could have been genuinely confused about all these dates.
Response: Libby was genuinely confused at least four times? Over a period of time? Under oath? And after he had time to review documents, e-mails, notes, etc. that could have refreshed his recollection?
Yes, it is possible. But presumably the prosecution will introduce evidence that Scooter Libby is not scatterbrained. The prosecution might find people to testify that Scooter Libby did not rise as high as he did by forgetting things and confusing by dates. It might find people to testify that Scooter Libby succeeded because he is a very smart, very hard-working operator who pays close attention to detail.
3. None of this matters. There is never going to be a trial. Libby will plea bargain.
Response: Don't count on it. Libby - - if he is guilty - - might jump at a plea bargain if he could escape prison time. But Fitzgerald does not strike me as the kind of prosecutor who would go along with a plea bargain that allows Libby to do 200 hours of public service lecturing high school kids on clean living.
If the Justice Department offered Libby anything other than prison time, there might be a huge public outcry. People might believe that the department was offering him a sweetheart deal to avoid a trial and keep facts secrets that might incriminate higher-ups in the White House.
And if Libby is offered no better than a prison term as a plea bargain, he might figure he is better off throwing the dice, pleading not guilty and hoping for a sympathetic jury.
4. Even if Libby is found guilty and gets a prison sentence, he will be paroled after a few months.
Response: There is no parole for federal crimes. If you are a federal prisoner and don't stab anybody in the shower, you are eligible for up to 54 days of "good time" per year, which reduces your sentence. In other words, a prisoner still must serve 85 percent of the sentence. And for sentences of one year or less, the entire sentence must be served.
5. Libby will never serve a day. President Bush will pardon him.
Response: George W. Bush wants to make his legacy to the nation the Iraq war and the presidential pardon of a man who allegedly damaged the nation's security?
I don't think so. I think President Bush is feeling a little humiliated, betrayed and lied-to about now. And I think he might want to make it known around the White House that if you do the crime, you are going to do the time.